Gold (XAU/USD) is generally regarded as a safe-haven asset. The price of gold is influenced by geopolitical events, inflation rates, and shifts in interest rates. In the face of global economic uncertainty, the precious metal remains the primary defensive asset in investment portfolios.
This article examines the factors driving the future of gold quotes and presents a forecast for the day, week, and month ahead. The price analysis encompasses macroeconomic data, political events, and technical analysis to facilitate the most accurate trading forecast for the XAUUSD.
The article covers the following subjects:
Expert Technical Analysis for XAU/USD for Today
The 4-hour chart shows the following signals:
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Gold prices are recovering after a sharp decline. A Rising Three Methods candlestick pattern (1) has formed near $4,701.55, pointing to a phase of temporary consolidation before further growth. This was followed by the formation of a bullish Marubozu (2) within the $4,701.55–$4,821.84 range, signaling increasing buying pressure.
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MACD is rising in negative territory and approaching the zero line, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening.
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RSI has reversed from the lower boundary and continues to recover gradually, holding at 42.
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MFI is moving neutrally in the lower range with a slight upward bias, indicating low liquidity.
- VWAP and SMA20 remain above the market price, signaling ongoing bearish pressure.
Trading Plan for XAUUSD for Today
Gold forecast for today:
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Key support levels: $4,760.74, $4,701.55, $4,645.91, $4,576.74, $4,509.74, $4,441.34, $4,373.89.
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Key resistance levels: $4,821.84, $4,881.57, $4,937.88, $4,996.26, $5,052.87, $5,107.72, $5,153.72, $5,208.41, $5,266.41.
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Base scenario: Open long positions (1) on increased volume above the $4,821.84 level, with price targets at $4,881.57, $4,937.88, $4,996.26, $5,052.87, $5,107.72, $5,153.72, $5,208.41, and $5,266.41. Stop Loss (3): $4,789.51.
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Alternative scenario: Open short positions (2) below $4,760.74 on increased volume. Targets: $4,701.55, $4,645.91, $4,576.74, $4,509.74, $4,441.34, and $4,373.89. Stop Loss (3): $4,789.51.
The analysis is provided by Alan Tsagaraev.
Alan Tsagaraev is an independent trader and analyst specializing in stock, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrency markets. He holds a degree in Economics and has been a professional investor and financial market trader since 2019. Over the course of his career, he has increased his capital more than tenfold.
XAU/USD Real-Time Market Status
Gold is trading at $4 951.47 as of 03.02.2026.
Gold Price Forecast for Tomorrow
On February 4, 2026, the XAU/USD price may continue to recover.
Gold price prediction tomorrow:
|
Date |
Daily Low, $ |
Daily High, $ |
Average price, $ |
|
04.02.2026 |
4,701.55 |
4,937.88 |
4,819.71 |
Gold Price Forecast for Next Week
Moderate volatility is expected this week amid the release of initial jobless claims data, other macroeconomic indicators, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.
Gold price prediction this week:
|
Date |
Weekly Low, $ |
Weekly High, $ |
Average price, $ |
|
02.02.2026– 08.02.2026 |
4,254.97 |
5,490.37 |
4,872.67 |
Gold Price Prediction for Next 30 Days
In February 2026, gold prices may be highly volatile amid geopolitical tensions and interest rate changes. Inflation expectations will likely support the precious metal, but a stronger US dollar may limit price gains. Experts expect gold to trade in the $4,914.81–$5,719.00 range by the end of the month.
Gold price forecast 30 days:
|
Month |
Monthly Low, $ |
Monthly High, $ |
Average price, $ |
|
February |
4,005.79 |
6,005.00 |
5,005.39 |
Gold Outlook: Market Sentiment and Key Events for the Next 30 Days
The following factors may influence the price of XAUUSD during the current month:
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In 2025, global gold demand rose to 5,002 tonnes. Key drivers included geopolitical instability and strong investor interest. Supported by record prices, the total value of gold demand surged by 45% to $555 billion, while investment volumes reached 2,175 tonnes.
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Demand for gold bars and coins climbed to 1,374 tonnes, while inflows into gold ETFs increased to 801 tonnes, confirming gold’s role as a store of value during periods of instability.
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Gold purchases by central banks totaled 863 tonnes in 2025 and are expected to ease slightly to 850 tonnes in 2026.
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Jewelry sector: Due to exceptionally high prices, global jewelry sales fell 18% in 2025, with the sharpest decline recorded in China, where demand dropped by 24%.
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Mining and supply: Global gold production reached 3.67 thousand tonnes in 2025, while recycled gold supply increased by 2–3%.
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The World Gold Council (WGC) expects investment interest in XAUUSD to remain strong, along with steady demand for physical gold, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts, and pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, consumer demand may remain constrained due to elevated prices.
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According to CME Group data, the probability of an interest rate cut to 3.25–3.50% in March stands at 14.8%. Meanwhile, 85.2% of market participants expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. Keeping borrowing costs at current levels could limit the upside potential of XAUUSD.
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Donald Trump has named Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Potential regulatory policy changes could put additional pressure on gold prices.
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Feb. 3 — Release of JOLTS job openings data.
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Feb. 4 — Publication of ADP nonfarm employment change for January, as well as US Services PMI data for January.
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Feb. 5 — Release of US initial jobless claims data.
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Feb. 6 — Release of the January unemployment report, along with the University of Michigan inflation expectations for February.
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Feb. 11 — Release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January.
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Feb. 20 — Release of US GDP data for Q4, as well as Manufacturing and Services PMI data for February.
Price Analysis and Forecasting Methodology
Our daily Gold price analysis and forecasting methodology includes:
- Analysis of fundamental factors and expert opinions influencing XAUUSD short-term price movements.
- Technical analysis of the asset’s charts from H1 to H4 time frames, including identification of key support and resistance levels, examination of technical indicators, and study of candlestick and chart patterns.
- Assessment of market sentiment through the analysis of posts and comments on social media, offering insights into the gold price’s next move.
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast FAQs
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
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