Volatility continues to shake markets, especially in cryptocurrencies and precious metals. Silver, for example, swung between $121.60 and $64.10 from late January to early February. This sharp drop erased up to 48% of silver’s value from its January record high above $121 per ounce.
Even as market participants grow more cautious, they are still vulnerable to significant losses, including forced liquidations by exchanges.
As for the US dollar, investor sentiment is shifting toward negative.
Market players stay cautious. In the upcoming week of February 16–22, 2026, they will pay attention to the publication of crucial macroeconomic statistics from Germany, the US, New Zealand, the UK, the Eurozone, Australia, and Canada. Moreover, markets will watch the outcomes of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Wednesday meeting and the People’s Bank of China’s Friday meeting.
This week is full of important events and publications, though it starts with public holidays in Canada, the US, and China, temporarily sidelining American and Chinese participants from the market.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: None scheduled.
- Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes, German CPI results, UK labor market data, Canadian CPI.
- Wednesday: New Zealand Reserve Bank’s meeting and interest rate decision, UK CPI, Minutes from the January Federal Reserve Meeting.
- Thursday: Australian labor market data, speech by the head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Friday: The People’s Bank of China’s interest rate decision, UK retail sales, preliminary PMI from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US, US GDP for Q4, and US PCE indices.
- Sunday: New Zealand’s retail sales for Q4.
- Key event of the week: US PCE and GDP data.
Monday, February 16
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released. Public holidays in Canada (Family Day), the United States (Presidents’ Day), and China (Lunar New Year) will overlap next week, likely resulting in a slow start to the trading week.
Despite low liquidity, short-term volatility may increase, with price action remaining multidirectional.
Tuesday, February 17
00:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the RBA is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
At the February meeting, the interest rate was raised by 0.25% to 3.85%. The RBA adopted a hawkish stance due to persistent inflationary pressures, suggesting that inflation would remain above target, putting pressure on production capacity and the economy.
In its statement, the RBA noted that “while inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025,” and said that “the Board has been closely monitoring the economy and judges that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures.”
Markets are already pricing in about a 60% chance that the RBA will raise interest rates at one of its upcoming meetings, which provides solid fundamental support for the Australian dollar.
If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA’s monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.
07:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.0%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicate a slowdown in inflation in Germany, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to ease its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the November reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
The preliminary estimate stood at -0.1% (+2.1% YoY).
07:00 – GBP: Average Weekly Earnings Over the Last Three Months. Unemployment Rate
The UK Office for National Statistics publishes a report on average weekly earnings covering the period for the last three months, including and excluding bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of employee average earnings changes in the UK. An increase in wages is positive for the British pound, whereas a low indicator value is unfavorable. Forecast: The January report suggests that average earnings, including bonuses, rose again over the last three months (October–December) after gaining +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.0%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +5.0%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.3%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.5%, +5.7%, +5.9%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.6%, +5.8%, +6.5%, +7.2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8.5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.%, +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods). Average earnings excluding bonuses likewise increased after gaining +4.5%,+4.6%, +4.6%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +5.2%, +5.6%, +5.9%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.8%, +4.9%, +5.1%, +5.4%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.1%, +6.2%, +6.6%, +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, +6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6.5%, +6.1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods). These figures show continued growth in employee earnings levels, which is favorable for the pound. If the figures turn out to be better than the forecast and/or previous values, the currency will likely strengthen. If the data falls short of expectations, the pound will likely weaken.
The UK unemployment data will be released at the same time. Unemployment is expected to stand at 5.1% over the last three months (October–December), after posting 5.1%, 5.1%, 5.0%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 4.6%, 4.5%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.3%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.9% in previous periods).
Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 8.0% in September 2012. The unemployment decline is a positive factor for the pound, while its growth negatively impacts the currency.
If the UK labor market data appears to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.
Regardless, when the UK labor market data is released, the pound and the London Stock Exchange are expected to experience increased volatility.
13:30 – CAD: Canada’s Consumer Price Indexes
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends of a selected basket of goods and services. Meanwhile, the Core CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada ranges between 1% and 3%. A higher CPI reading is a sign of a rate hike and is positive for the Canadian dollar.
Previous values:
- CPI: -0.2% (+2.4% YoY) in January 2026, +0.1% (+2.2% YoY), 0.2% (+2.2% YoY), +0.1% (+2.4% YoY), -0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.3% (+1.7% YoY), +0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.6% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.7% YoY) in April, +0.3% (+2.3% YoY) in March, +1.1% (+2.6% YoY) in February, +0.1% (+1.9% YoY) in January 2025, -0.4% (+1.8% YoY) in December 2024, 0% (+1.9% YoY), +0.4% (+2.0% YoY), -0.4% (+1.6% YoY),-0.2% (+2.0% YoY), +0.4% (+2.5% YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.3% (+2.8% YoY), 0% (+2.9% YoY), -0.3% (+3.4% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), -0.1% (+3.8% YoY), +0.4% (+4.0% YoY), +0.6% (+3.3% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY);
- Core CPI released by the Bank of Canada: +0.2% (+2.8% YoY) in january 2026, +0.2% (+2.9% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.3% (+2.8% YoY), 0% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.5% YoY), +0.5% (+2.5% YoY) in April, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in March, +0.7% (+2.7% YoY) in February, +0.4% (+2.1% YoY) in January 2025, +0.3% (+1.8% YoY) in December 2024, -0.1% (+1.6% YoY), +0.4% (+1.7% YoY), 0% (+1.6% YoY), -0.1% (+1.5% YoY), +0.3% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.6% (+1.8% YoY), +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), +0.5% (+2.0% YoY), +0.1% (+2.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2, 4% YoY), -0.5% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.1% (+3.3% YoY), +0.5% (+3.2% YoY), -0.1% (+3.2% YoY).
The data suggests that inflation continues to decelerate, which prompts the Canadian central bank to consider implementing a dovish monetary policy. If the expected data is worse than the previous values, it will negatively affect the Canadian dollar, but if the data exceeds expectations, it will bolster the currency.
Wednesday, February 18
01:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Decision. RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economy no longer required the same level of monetary stimulus. Afterward, the bank decided to ease the monetary policy in August 2024, reducing the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Prior to this change, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its policy easing cycle, reducing the interest rate to the current level of 2.25%.
Economists expect New Zealand’s borrowing costs to fall further amid a sustained slowdown in inflation and a volatile labor market.
The New Zealand currency faced significant pressure after the RBNZ opted to cut the interest rate. The accompanying statement revealed that the decision was made given expectations of a further drop in inflation, which is gradually returning to the target range of 1.0%–3.0%. Inflation expectations have also decreased.
At this meeting, the RBNZ may either reduce the interest rate again, advocating for further monetary policy easing, or leave the rate at the current level. Market participants monitoring the New Zealand dollar’s performance should be prepared for a notable uptick in volatility during this time.
In the Monetary Policy Review and commentary, the RBNZ officials will explain the interest rate decision and the economic factors that influenced it.
07:00 – GBP: UK Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the retail prices of a group of goods and services comprising the UK consumer basket. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation. The British pound’s movement on the currency market and the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 index performance depend on the release of the CPI data.
In December, the UK consumer inflation rose by +0.4% (+3.4% YoY), after posting -0.2% (+3.2% YoY) in Novenber, +0.4% (3.6% YoY) in October, 0% (+3.8% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+3.8% YoY) in August, +0.1% (+3.8% YoY) in July, +0.3% (+3.6% YoY) in June, +0.2% (+3.4% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+2.6% YoY) in March, +0.4% (+2.8% YoY) in February, +3.0% YoY in January 2025, +0.3% (+2.5% YoY) in December 2024, +0.1% (2.6% YoY), +0,6% (2.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+1.7%YoY) in September, +0.3% (+2.2% YoY) in August, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+2.0% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+2.0% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+2, 3% YoY) in April, +0.6% (+3.2% YoY) in March, +0.6% (+3.4% YoY), -0.6% (+4.0% YoY) in January 2024, +0.4% (+4.0% YoY) in December.
The data suggests persistent inflationary pressures in the UK, which are expected to bolster the British pound, particularly if the actual data surpasses the forecasted values.
An indicator reading below the forecast/previous value may cause the weakening of the British pound since low inflation will force the Bank of England to stick to the easy monetary policy course.
The Core CPI, published by the Office for National Statistics, measures the price change in a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the British pound, while a negative outcome weakens it.
In December, the core CPI posted +3.2% YoY, after +3.2% in November, +3.4% YoY in October 3.5% in September, 3.6% in August, 3.8% in July, +3.7% in June, +3.5% in May, +3.8% in April, +3.4% in March, +3.5% in February, +3.7% in January 2025, +3.2% in December 2024, +2.6% in November, +3.3% in October, +1.7% in September, +3.6% in August, +3.3% in July, +3.5% in June and May, +3.9%, +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.1% in January 2024, December and November, after rising +5.7% +6.1%, +6.2% three months earlier. The publication will likely positively impact the British pound in the short term if it exceeds the forecasted and previous values. A reading below the forecast and/or previous values may weaken the pound.
19:00 – USD: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
The FOMC minutes release is extremely important for determining the course of the Fed’s current policy and the prospects for US interest rate hikes. Volatility in financial markets usually increases during the minutes’ publication, as they often reveal changes or provide clarifications from the latest FOMC meeting.
Following the meetings in the first half of 2025, the Fed’s interest rate remained at 4.50%. In September, it was reduced by 0.25% for the first time in 2025. In October, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%.
At the first meeting of 2026, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged. During a press conference following the January meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation still considerably exceeds the 2% target. Investors are now confident that the Fed will maintain the status quo until the end of Q1 and possibly until the end of Powell’s term in May. However, market players are pricing in two additional rate cuts later in 2026.
The next Fed meeting is scheduled for March 17–18. The regulator is expected to pause, but then cut rates twice in 2026. Market participants expect the published minutes to provide some clarity on this issue.
The dovish tone of the minutes will positively impact stock indices and negatively affect the US dollar. The hawkish Fed’s rhetoric on monetary policy may boost the greenback.
Thursday, February 19
00:30 – AUD: Employment Rate. Unemployment Rat
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. The increase in the indicator value positively impacts consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. A high reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous indicator values: +65,200 in December, -28,700 in November, +41,100 in October, +12,800 in September, -11,800 in August, +26,500 in July, +1,000 in June, -1,100 in May, +87,600 in April, +25,500 in March, -54,200 in February, +34,900 in January 2025, +60,000 in December 2024.
Besides, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate. It is an indicator that estimates the ratio of the share of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. The rise in the indicator readings demonstrates the weakening of the labor market, negatively impacting the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is positive for the Australian dollar.
Forecast: Australian unemployment has remained at its lowest levels and stood at 4.1% in January 2026 (against 4.1% in December 2025, 4.3% in November and October, 4.5% in September, 4.3% in August, 4.2% in July, 4.3% in June, 4.1% in May, April, March, February, and January 2025, 4.0% in December 2024, 3.9% in November, 4.1% in October, September, and August, 4.2% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.8% in April, 3.7% in March and February, 4.1% in January, 3.9% in December and November, 3.8% in October, 3.6% in September, 3.7% in August and July, 3.5% in June, 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April, 3.5% in March and February, 3.7% in January, 3.5% in December, 3.4% in November and October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February, 4.2% in January), while the employment rate has increased.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly stated that the Australian economy and the central bank’s plans are influenced by key indicators like the level of household debt and spending, wage growth, and the state of the labor market, in addition to the international trade situation. If the indicator readings are lower than expected, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term, while higher data will strengthen the currency.
23:00 – NZD: Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Anna Breman Speech
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor’s speeches often provide insights into the future direction of the central bank’s monetary policy. If RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, appointed in December 2025, signals the bank’s intention to conduct a soft monetary policy, the pressure on the New Zealand dollar will likely increase. Conversely, the tough rhetoric of his statements will support the New Zealand currency.
Friday, February 20
01:15 – CNY: People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision
Since May 2012, the People’s Bank of China has been lowering its interest rate to support Chinese manufacturers. Last time, the bank reduced the rate in May 2025 after a long pause, bringing the rate down by 0.1% to its current level of 3.00%.
What will the Chinese central bank do this time after pausing? The People’s Bank of China will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.00% at this meeting, although other decisions are also possible.
Should the People’s Bank of China make statements that deviate from expectations, volatility may increase across the entire financial market, particularly in the Asian market. Investors will closely watch the bank’s assessment of the Chinese economy’s prospects and its policy stance in the short term.
07:00 – GBP: UK Retail Sales
The retail sales economic indicator is a key metric that tracks the level of consumer demand and significantly impacts market performance and the national currency. Additionally, it serves as an indirect indicator of inflation, making it a key concern for a country’s central bank and market participants.
The retail sales report is released by the UK Office for National Statistics. The Retail Sales change is considered to indicate the consumer spending level. High indicator values are positive for the British pound, while low readings are negative.
Previous index values YoY: +2,5% in January 2026, +0.6%, +0.2%, +1.5%, +0.7%, +1.8%, -1.2%, +5.2%, +2.6%, +1.3%, +0.3% in January 2025, +2.2% (in December 2024), -0.7%, +0.9%, +2.3%, +1.2%, +0.5%, -1.9%, +0.6%, -2.8%, -0.7%, -0.8%, +0.1% (in January 2024).
08:30 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes of the German Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)
The manufacturing and services PMIs are important indicators of the business environment and the health of the German economy. These sectors play a significant role in Germany’s GDP. A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook and bolsters the euro, while a reading below 50 is negative for the euro. Conversely, data worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value will prove to be negative for the euro.
Previous values:
- Manufacturing PMI: 49.1, 47.0, 48.2, 49.6, 49.5, 49.8, 49.1, 49.0, 48.3, 48.4, 48.3, 46.5, 45.0, 42.5 in December 2024, 43.0, 43.0, 40.6, 42.4, 43.2, 43.5, 45.4, 42.5, 41.9, 42.5, 45.5, 43.3, 40.8, 39.6, 38.8, 40.6, 43.2, 44.5, 44.7, 46.3, 47.3, 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6;
- Services PMI: 52.4, 52.7, 53.1, 54.6, 51.5, 49.3, 50,6, 49.7, 47.1, 49.0, 50.9, 51.1, 52.5, 51.2 in December 2024, 49.3, 51.6, 50.6, 51.2, 52.5, 53.1, 54.2, 53.2, 50.1, 48.3, 47.7, 45.7, 48.2, 50.3, 52.3, 54.1, 57.2, 56.0, 53.7, 50.9, 50.7, 49.2, 46.1, 46.5, 45.0, 47.7, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6, 56.1, 55.8;
- Composite PMI: 52.1, 51.3, 52.4, 53.9, 52.0, 50.5, 50.6, 50.4, 48.5, 50.1, 51.3, 50.4, 50.5, 48.0 in December 2024, 47.2, 48.6, 47.5, 48.4, 49.1, 50.4, 52.4, 50.6, 47.7, 46.3, 47.0, 47.4, 45.9, 46.4, 48.5, 50.6, 53.9, 54.2, 52.6, 50.7, 49.9, 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6.
09:00 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of Eurozone Manufacturing Activity by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)
The Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs are significant indicators of the European economy. Readings above 50 are positive and strengthen the euro, while readings below 50 are negative for the currency. If the figures are worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value, the euro will be affected negatively.
Previous values:
- Manufacturing PMI: 49.5, 48.8, 49.6, 50.0, 49,8, 50.7, 49.8, 49.5, 49.4, 49.0, 48.6, 47.6, 46.6, 49.6 in December 2024, 45.2, 46.0, 45.0, 45.8, 45.8, 45.8, 47.3, 45.7, 46.1, 46.5, 46.6, 44.4, 43.1, 47.2, 42.7, 43.4, 44.8, 45.8, 47.3, 48.5, 48.8 in January 2023;
- Services PMI: 51.6, 53.6, 52.4, 53.0, 51,3, 50.5, 51.0, 50.5, 49.7, 50.1, 51.0, 50.6, 51.3, 51.2 in December 2024, 49.5, 51.6, 51.4, 52.9, 51.9, 52.8, 53.2, 53.3, 51.5, 50.2, 48.4, 48.8, 47.8, 48.7, 50.9, 52.0, 55.1, 56.2, 55.0, 52.7, 50.8 in January 2023;
- Composite PMI: 51.3, 51.5, 52.8, 52.5, 51,2, 51.0, 50.9, 50.6, 50,2, 50.1, 50.9, 50.2, 50.2, 48.0 in December 2024, 48.3, 50.0, 49.6, 51.0, 50.2, 50.9, 52.2, 51.7, 50.3, 49.2, 47.9, 47.6, 46.5, 47.2, 48.6, 52.8, 54.1, 53.7, 52.0, 50.3, 49.3 in January 2023.
09:30 – GBP: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the UK Manufacturing Sector by S&P Global (Preliminary Release
The manufacturing and services PMIs serve as a vital indicator of the UK economy’s health. The services sector employs the majority of the UK’s working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. Financial services continue to be the most important part of the services sector. If the data is worse than the forecast and the previous value, the British pound will likely experience a short-term but sharp decline. If the data exceeds the forecast and the previous value, it will have a positive impact on the currency. At the same time, a PMI reading above 50 is favorable and strengthens the British pound, while a reading below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values:
- Manufacturing PMI: 51.8, 50.6, 50.2, 49.7, 46.2, 47.0, 48.0, 47.7, 46.4, 45.4, 44.9, 46.9, 48.3, 48.0, 49.9, 51,5, 52.5, 52.1, 50.9, 51.2, 49.1, 50.3, 47.5, 47.0, 46.2, 44.8, 44.3, 45.3, 46.5, 47.1, 47.8, 47.9, 49.3, 47.0, 45.3, 46.5, 46.2, 48.4;
- Services PMI: 54.0, 51.4, 51.3, 52.3, 50.8, 54.2, 51.8, 52.8, 50.9, 49.0, 52.5, 51.0, 50.9, 51.1 in December 2024, 50.8, 52.0, 51.4, 53.7, 52.5, 52.1, 52.9, 55.0, 53.1, 53.8, 54.3, 53.4, 49.5, 49.3, 51.5, 53.7, 55.2, 55.9, 52.9, 53.5, 48.7, 49.9, 48.8, 48.8, 50.0, 50.9, 52.6;
- Composite PMI: 53.7, 51.4, 51.2, 52.2, 50.1, 53.5, 51.5, 52.0, 50.3, 48.5, 51.5, 50.5, 50.6, 50.4 in December 2024, 50.5, 51.8, 49.6, 53.8, 52.8, 52.3, 53.0, 54.1, 52.8, 53.0, 52.9, 52.1, 48.7, 48.5, 50.8, 52.8, 54.0, 54.9, 52.2, 53.1, 48.5 in January 2023.
13:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q4 (Preliminary Estimate). Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)
The GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. In Q3 2025, GDP posted +4.4%, after +3.8% in Q2, -0.6% in Q1, +1.9% in Q4 2024, +3.3% in Q3, +3.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024, +3.4% in Q4 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q4 2025, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous values YoY: +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.7% in January 2025, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.8% +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +3.1% in January 2024, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.3% +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +4.8%, +5.1%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% in January 2022.
14:45 – USD: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the US Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (Preliminary Release)
The PMIs of the most important US economic sectors, released by S&P Global, are an important gauge of the US economic conditions. A PMI reading above 50 signals bullishness, bolstering the US dollar, whereas a reading below 50 bodes negatively for the greenback.
Previous values:
- Manufacturing PMI: 52.4, 51.8, 52.2, 52.5, 52.0, 53.0, 49.8, 52.0, 52.0, 50.2, 50.2, 52.7, 51.2, 49.4 in December 2024, 49.7, 48.5, 47.6, 47.9, 49.6, 51.6, 51.3, 50.0, 51.9, 52.2, 50.7, 47.9, 50.0, 49.8, 49.0, 46.3, 48.4, 50.2, 47.3, 46.9, 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5;
- Services PMI: 52.7, 52.5, 54.1, 54.8, 54.2, 54.5, 55.7, 52.9, 53.7, 50.8, 54.4, 51.0, 52.9, 56.8 in December 2024, 56.1, 55.0, 55.2, 55.7, 55.0, 55.3, 54.8, 51.3, 51.7, 52.3, 52.5, 51.4, 50.6, 50.1, 52.3, 54.4, 54.9, 53.6, 50.6, 46.8, 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6;
- Composite PMI: 53.0, 52.7, 54.2, 54.6, 53.9, 54.6, 55.1, 52.9, 50.3, 50.6, 53.5, 51.6, 52.7, 55.4 in December 2024, 54.9, 54.1, 54.0, 54.6, 54.3, 54.8, 54.5, 51.3, 52.1, 52.5, 52.0, 50.9, 50.7, 50.2, 52.0, 53.2, 54.3, 53.4, 52.3, 50.1, 46.8 in January 2023.
Sunday, February 22
21:45 – NZD: Retail Sales in Q4
The retail sales data is published by Statistics New Zealand. Change in retail sales volume is usually considered an indicator of consumer spending. Strong retail sales are generally positive for the New Zealand dollar, while weak figures weigh on the currency. In Q3 2025, the retail sales volume indicator showed a gain of +1.9% after +0.5% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2025, +1.0% in Q4 2024, 0% in Q3, a decline of -1.2% in Q2 2024, an increase of +0.4% in Q1, a decline of -1.8% in Q4 2023, -0.8% in Q3, and -1.0% in Q1 2023. The decline in retail sales is bearish for the New Zealand dollar.
The New Zealand dollar may strengthen if data exceeds the forecast or previous values, while a weak report will adversely affect the currency.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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