Market participants have reassessed the likelihood of changes in monetary policy following the late-April meetings of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, and now need fresh data to refine their outlook. This week, attention will focus on inflation reports, including key releases from the US.
At the same time, developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continue to sway markets.
In addition, in the coming week of May 11–17, 2026, market participants will be watching for the publication of key macroeconomic data from China, Germany, Australia, the US, New Zealand, and the UK.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: China’s CPI data.
- Tuesday: Germany’s CPI figures, the Australian Federal Budget release, and US CPI data.
- Wednesday: Inflation expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the US PPI.
- Thursday: UK GDP and US retail sales.
- Friday: University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index.
- Key event of the week: the US CPI data release.
Monday, May 11
01:30 – CNY: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter monetary policy. Higher consumer inflation may cause yuan appreciation, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, the publication of its significant macroeconomic data has a notable impact on the global financial markets. This influence extends particularly to the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity currencies. Moreover, China serves as the largest buyer of commodities and supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market.
In March 2026, the consumer inflation index value stood at -0.7% (+1.0% YoY), after +1.0% (+1.3% YoY), +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+0.8% YoY) in December 2025, -0.1% (+0.7%) in November, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in October, +0.1% (-0.3% YoY) in september, 0% (-0.4% YoY) in August, +0.4% (0% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in June, -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) in May, +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+0.2% YoY) in November 2024, -0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+0.4% YoY) in September, +0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in July 2024, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in June, -0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in May, +0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in April, +0.1% (-2.7% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (-0.5% YoY) in November, +0.2% (0% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+0.1% YoY) in July, -0.2% (0% YoY) in June, -0.2% (0% YoY) in May, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY).
The increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi quotes, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian dollar, given that China is Australia’s largest trade and economic partner.
Tuesday, May 12
06:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.9%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9.2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the April reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
09:30 – AUD: Australian Federal Budget
The Australian government releases its annual Federal Budget for the coming year. This event can cause fluctuations in financial markets, particularly in the Australian dollar exchange rate. However, the market reaction depends on the specific measures outlined in the document, as well as the broader economic context.
12:30 – USD: US Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation trends and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from the Core CPI to provide a more accurate assessment.
A high index reading typically strengthens the US dollar by signaling an increased likelihood of the Fed interest rate hike, while a low reading generally weakens the currency.
Previous values YoY:
- CPI: +3.3%, +2.4% in February and January 2026, +2.7% in December 2025, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.8%, +3.0% in January 2025, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2,5%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.2%, +3.7%, +3.7%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +4.0%, +4.9%, +5.0%, +6.0%, +6.4% in January 2023;
- Core CPI: +2.6%, +2.5% in February and January 2026, +2.6% in December 2025, +2.6%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.1%, +4.3%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.5%, +5.6% in January 2023.
The figures indicate that inflation is decreasing inconsistently, picking up again in some months. Previous data suggest a slower decline than the Fed had expected. However, the current rate is well below the June 2022 level, when annual inflation in the US reached a 40-year high of 9.1%. US inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high or take a pause to assess the economic and labor market situation if the reduction occurs.
If the numbers surpass expectations and previous readings, the greenback will strengthen, as this scenario would heighten the chances that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer or resume its cycle of monetary policy tightening.
Wednesday, May 13
03:00 – NZD: Inflation Expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for Q2
The indicator measures consumers’ expectations regarding annual inflation over the next 24 months. An increase in these expectations can significantly influence the likelihood of an interest rate hike. A high indicator value is a positive factor for the New Zealand dollar.
Previous values QoQ: +2.37%, +2.28% in Q4 2025, +2.28% in Q3 2025, +2.29% in Q2 2025, +2.06% in Q1 2025, +2.12% in Q4 2024, +2.03%, +2.33%, +2.50% in Q1 2024, +2.76%, +2.83%, +2.79%, +3.3%, +3.62% in Q4 2022.
12:30 – USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. The index is one of the leading inflation indicators in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices.
Rising production costs increase wholesale selling prices, which ultimately boosts inflation. In normal economic conditions, growing inflation usually puts upward pressure on the national currency quotes, implying a tighter central bank monetary policy.
Previous figures: +0.5% (+4.0%), +0.5% (+3.4% YoY), +0.6% (+3.1% YoY) in January 2026, +0.4% (+3.2% YoY) in December 2025, +0.4% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.6% (+3.0% YoY), -0.2% (+2.7% YoY), +0.8% (+3.2% YoY), +0.1% (+2.4% YoY), +0.4% (+2.7% YoY), -0.3% (+2.4% YoY), -0.2% (+3.2% YoY), +0.1% (+3.4% YoY), +0.7% (+3.8% YoY) in January 2025.
If the data exceeds the forecasted value, the US dollar will likely strengthen. Conversely, if the data falls below forecasted and previous values, this will exert pressure on the Fed. This could lead to the Fed’s monetary policy easing, which will negatively impact the US dollar.
Thursday, May 14
Several Catholic countries, including European nations, will celebrate Ascension Day. Therefore, banks and stock exchanges will be closed, and trading volumes will be lower than usual.
06:00 – GBP: UK GDP for Q1 2026 (Preliminary Estimate)
GDP is viewed as an indicator of the UK economy’s condition. The growing GDP indicator is considered positive for the British pound. The UK GDP rate was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum occurred. Subsequently, its growth decelerated, and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK GDP rate dropped.
The preliminary estimate for Q1 suggests that UK GDP grew again, which is generally positive for the GBP.
Previous GDP values: +0.1% in Q4, +0.1% in Q3, +0.2% in Q2 2025, +0.7% in Q1 2025, +0.3% in Q4 2024, 0.2% in Q3, +0.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024.
The key factors that may force the Bank of England to keep the rate low include weak GDP, slow labor market growth, and low consumer spending. Should the GDP data fall significantly below previous values, the pound will face downward pressure. Conversely, high GDP readings will bolster the currency.
12:30 – USD: US Retail Sales. Retail Sales Control Group
This Census Bureau report on retail sales reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. The change in retail sales is a key indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. High indicator readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken it. A relative decline in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the US dollar, while a rise in the indicator will positively impact the currency.
In March 2026, the value stood at +0.7%, after +0.7%, -0.1%, 0% in December 2025, +0.6% in November, -0.1% in October, +0.1% in September, +0.6% in August and July, +1.0%, -0.8%, -0.1%, +1.5%, 0%, -0.9% in January 2025.
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing the change in the retail industry.
Retail sales serve as an indicator of domestic consumption, contributing the most to the US GDP and being one of the main factors influencing inflation. Deterioration of the indicator values is a negative factor for the US dollar. Inflation deceleration may prompt the Fed to begin the process of monetary policy easing.
The Retail Control Group indicator gauges volume in the retail industry and is used to calculate price indexes for most goods. High readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken the currency. A slight increase in the figures is unlikely to boost the dollar. If the data is lower than the previous readings, the dollar may be negatively impacted in the short term. Previous values: +0.7%, +0.6%, +0.2%, 0%, +0.2%, +0.6%, -0.2%, +0.7%, +0.5%, +0.9%, +0.3%, -0.2%, +0.5%, +0.8%, -0.5%, +1.0%, 0%, +0.2%, +1.1%, -0.1%, +0.3%, +1.2%, +0.6%, +0.1%, +0.8%, +0.2%, -0.6% in January 2024.
Friday, May 15
14:00 – USD: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Release)
This indicator reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth, while a low one points to stagnation. Previous indicator values: 49.8, 53.3, 56.6, in January 2026, 52.9 in December 2025, 51.0 in November, 53.6 in October, 55.1 in September, 58.2 in August, 61.7 in July, 60.7 in June, 52.2 in May and April, 57.0 in March, 64.7 in February, 71.1 in January, 74.0 in December, 71.8 in November, 70.5 in October, 70.1 in September, 67.9 in August, 66.4 in July, 68.2 in June, 69.1 in May, 77.2 in April, 79.4 in March, 76.9 in February, 79.0 in January 2024, 69.7 in December 2023, 61.3 in November, 63.8 in October, 68.1 in September, 69.5 in August, 71.6 in July, 64.4 in June, 59.2 in May, 63,5 in April, 62.0 in March, 67.0 in February, 64.9 in January 2023, 59.7 in December, 56.8 in November, 59.9 in October, 58.6 in September, 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59.4 in March, 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the US dollar, while a decrease will weaken the currency. The data shows that the recovery of this indicator is uneven, which is unfavorable for the greenback. A decline below previous values will likely negatively impact the US dollar in the near term.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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