Next week, five of the world’s largest central banks will announce their interest rate decisions. The key event will be the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, investors will closely watch the accompanying statement and remarks from the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.
Also during the week of June 15–21, 2026, market participants will be watching for the release of key economic data from China, the UK, the US, and New Zealand.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: None scheduled.
- Tuesday: China’s industrial production and retail sales data, along with interest rate decisions from the BoJ and RBA.
- Wednesday: UK CPI data, US retail sales figures, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and New Zealand GDP.
- Thursday: UK labor market data, SNB and Bank of England interest rate decisions.
- Friday: Juneteenth holiday in the US and UK retail sales data.
- Key event of the week: the Fed’s interest rate decision.
Monday, June 15
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released.
Tuesday, June 16
02:00 – CNY: Industrial Production. Retail Sales
The National Bureau of Statistics of China’s report on industrial production shows the output of Chinese industrial enterprises, such as factories and manufacturing facilities. An increase in industrial production is a positive factor for the yuan, indirectly signaling the possibility of accelerating inflation, which may force the People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy.
Conversely, the decline in the indicator value may negatively impact the yuan.
Previous values YoY: +4.1%, +5.7%, +6.3%, +5.2% in December 2025; +4.8%, +4.9%, +6.5%, +5.2%, +5.7% in July 2025.
The retail sales index, published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. The index is often viewed as an indicator of consumer confidence and economic prosperity and reflects the state of the retail sector in the near term. An increase in the index value is usually positive for the yuan, while a decrease in the index value will affect it negatively. Previous YoY values: +0.2%, +1.7%, +2.8%, +0.9% in December 2025, +1.3%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.4%, +3.7%, +4.8%, +6.4%, +5.1%, +5.9%, +4.0%, +3.7% in December 2024.
The data indicate that this sector of the Chinese economy continues to recover after a strong decline in February and March 2020. If the data prove weaker than the forecasted or previous values, the yuan may experience a decline, potentially a sharp one.
China is a major buyer of commodities and a supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market. Since China’s economy is the second largest in the world, the release of its significant macroeconomic indicators can profoundly influence the overall financial market.
Besides, China is the largest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand, purchasing a significant amount of commodities from these countries.
Therefore, positive macro statistics from China may also exert a positive influence on these commodity currencies. Conversely, if the anticipated data indicates a deceleration in one of the world’s largest economies, it would be a detrimental factor for global stock markets and commodity currencies.
After 02:00 (Exact Time Not Specified) – JPY: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Bank of Japan Press Conference and Commentary on Monetary Policy
The Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate. Since February 2016, the Bank of Japan has kept the deposit rate at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target around 0%. However, at its March 19, 2024, meeting, the Bank of Japan’s board members decided to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points, from -0.1% to 0%, for the first time since 2007, ending the period of negative interest rates that began in 2016.
Currently, Japan’s benchmark interest rate stands at 0.75% and is expected to remain unchanged. If the rate is lowered, the yen may weaken, while the Japanese stock market could rise. In any case, heightened volatility in the yen and across Asian financial markets is anticipated during this period.
According to analysts, if the BoJ hints at further rate hikes, the yen will receive significant support.
The commentary and accompanying statement will reflect the views of the bank’s board members regarding the adopted decision and the outlook for monetary policy.
04:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision. RBA Accompanying Statement
The Australian economy’s primary challenges include sluggish wage growth, a weak labor market, and a slowdown in growth rates.
At its February 2026 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.25%, the first increase since December 2025. In May, the rate was raised again to 4.35%. The Australian dollar strengthened after these decisions, although the hikes were largely expected by the market. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said after the meeting that inflation remains too high and will take more time to return to target levels. She also stressed that future policy decisions will depend on incoming data. Overall, the risk of rates staying high or rising further remains, supporting the Australian dollar.
Prior to and after the decision, RBA officials did not rule out the possibility of further policy tightening if new signs of consumer inflation emerged.
The RBA may raise interest rates again at the upcoming meeting, given the sharp rise in energy prices, particularly oil, resulting from the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, causing inflation to accelerate.
In the accompanying statement, the RBA will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of monetary easing in the near term, the risks of the Australian dollar depreciating will increase. Conversely, the hawkish rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement may lead to a strengthening of the Australian dollar.
05:30 – AUD: RBA Press Conference
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy plans. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia. Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a volatility surge in the Australian currency and stock market.
06:30 – JPY: Bank of Japan Press Conference
During the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will comment on the bank’s monetary policy and interest rate decision. Markets usually react noticeably to speeches of the BoJ governor. If he touches on monetary policy during his speech, volatility will rise not only in the yen but also across Asian and global financial markets.
Wednesday, June 17
06:00 – GBP: UK Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the retail prices of a group of goods and services comprising the UK consumer basket. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation. The British pound’s movement on the currency market and the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 index performance depend on the release of the CPI data.
In April, the UK consumer inflation posted +0.7% (+2.8%), after +0.7% (+3.3% YoY) in March, +0.4% (+3.0% YoY) in February, -0.5% (+3.0% YoY) in January 2026, +0.4% (+3.4% YoY) in December 2025, -0.2% (+3.2% YoY) in November, +0.4% (3.6% YoY) in October, 0% (+3.8% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+3.8% YoY) in August, +0.1% (+3.8% YoY) in July, +0.3% (+3.6% YoY) in June, +0.2% (+3.4% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+2.6% YoY) in March, +0.4% (+2.8% YoY) in February, +3.0% YoY in January 2025.
The data suggests persistent inflationary pressures in the UK, which are expected to bolster the British pound, particularly if the actual data surpasses the forecasted values.
An indicator reading below the forecast/previous value may cause the weakening of the British pound since low inflation will force the Bank of England to stick to the loose monetary policy course.
The Core CPI, published by the Office for National Statistics, measures the price change in a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the British pound, while a negative outcome weakens it.
In April 2026, the core CPI posted 3.1% YoY after 3.1% in March, +3.2% in February, +3.1% in January 2026, +3.2% in December and November, +3.4% YoY in October 3.5% in September, 3.6% in August, 3.8% in July, +3.7% in June, +3.5% in May, +3.8% in April, +3.4% in March, +3.5% in February, +3.7% in January 2025. The publication will likely positively impact the British pound in the short term if it exceeds the forecasted and previous values. A reading below the forecast and/or previous values may weaken the pound.
12:30 – USD: US Retail Sales. Retail Sales Control Group
This Census Bureau report on retail sales reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. The change in retail sales is a key indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. High indicator readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken it. A relative decline in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the US dollar, while a rise in the indicator will positively impact the currency.
In April 2026, the value stood at +0.5% after +1.6%, +0.7%, -0.1%, 0% in December 2025, +0.5% in November, -0.2% in October, +0.1% in September, +0.5% in August, +0.6% in July, +1.0%, -0.8%, -0.2%, +1.7%, 0%, -0.8% in January 2025.
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing the change in the retail industry.
Retail sales serve as an indicator of domestic consumption, contributing the most to the US GDP and being one of the main factors influencing inflation. Deterioration of the indicator values is a negative factor for the US dollar. Inflation deceleration may prompt the Fed to begin the process of monetary policy easing.
The Retail Control Group indicator gauges volume in the retail industry and is used to calculate price indexes for most goods. High readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken the currency. A slight increase in the figures is unlikely to boost the dollar. If the data is lower than the previous readings, the dollar may be negatively impacted in the short term. Previous values: +0.5%, +0.8%, +0.6%, +0.5%, 0%, +0.2%, +0.5%, -0.2%, +0.7%, +0.5%, +0.9%, +0.3%, 0%, +0.2%, +1.3%, -0.9% in January 2025.
18:00 – USD: US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Commentary on Monetary Policy.
During the first half of 2024, the US Fed policymakers left monetary policy parameters unchanged at multiple meetings, maintaining the key interest rate at 5.50%. However, at the September, November, and December meetings, the US Fed’s leaders reduced the interest rate to 4.50%.
On September 17, 2025, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, marking its first reduction since December 2024. Notably, a month before these decisions, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US central bank’s focus was shifting toward ensuring stability in the labor market. However, Powell emphasized that any decisions regarding interest rates would still hinge on the prevailing economic conditions.
Some market participants now expect the Fed to continue its monetary easing cycle, while others anticipate policy tightening amid rising oil prices and accelerating inflation.
For now, it is widely anticipated that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 3.75% at the upcoming meeting.
The financial market may experience higher volatility when the rate decision is announced, particularly in the US stock market and the US dollar, especially if the rate decision does not match the forecast or the Fed makes unexpected statements.
Comments by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, may affect both short-term and long-term movements of the US dollar. The Fed’s more aggressive approach to monetary policy is a positive factor that would strengthen the US dollar, while a more cautious position is negative for the greenback. Investors eagerly await Warsh’s remarks on the Fed’s future plans.
18:30 – USD: US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Press Conference
The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference lasts approximately one hour. It begins with the Chair delivering a prepared statement, followed by a Q&A session with journalists, which can trigger increased market volatility. Any unexpected statements by Warsh regarding the Fed’s monetary policy will spark volatility in the dollar and the US stock market.
22:45 – NZD: New Zealand GDP for Q1
The data release will heighten volatility in the New Zealand dollar. Given the recent rise in commodity and agricultural prices, particularly for dairy products, New Zealand’s major export, and considering that the coronavirus pandemic has had the least impact on New Zealand compared to other large economies, the New Zealand Q1 2026 GDP report will likely be positive.
Previous YoY values: +1.3%, +1.1%, -1.1%, -0.6%, -1.3%, -1.6%, -0.5%, +1.3%, +1.0%, +0.7%, +2.7%, +3.0% in Q1 2023.
The data so far remains contradictory, indicating an uneven recovery of the New Zealand economy at the end of 2023 after a downturn in the first half of 2020. If the data is worse than the previous values, it will negatively affect the New Zealand dollar.
Thursday, June 18
01:30 – AUD: Employment Change. Unemployment Rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. An increase in the indicator value positively impacts consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. A high reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous indicator values: -18,600 in April, +23,300 in March, +48,700 in February, +26,100 in January 2026, +68,500 in December 2025, -28,700 in November, +41,100 in October, +12,800 in September, -11,800 in August, +26,500 in July, +1,000 in June, -1,100 in May, +87,600 in April, +25,500 in March, -54,200 in February, +34,900 in January 2025, +60,000 in December 2024.
Besides, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate. It is an indicator that estimates the ratio of the share of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. The rise in the indicator readings demonstrates the weakening of the labor market, negatively impacting the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is positive for the Australian dollar.
Forecast: Australian unemployment remained at its lowest levels and stood at 4.5% in May 2026 (against 4.3% in April, March and February, 4.1% in January 2026 and December 2025, 4.3% in November and October, 4.5% in September, 4.3% in August, 4.2% in July, 4.3% in June, 4.1% in May, April, March, February, and January 2025, 4.0% in December 2024, 3.9% in November, 4.1% in October, September, and August, 4.2% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 4.1% in April, 3.7% in March and February, 4.1% in January, 3.9% in December and November, 3.8% in October, 3.6% in September, 3.7% in August and July, 3.5% in June, 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April, 3.5% in March and February, 3.7% in January, 3.5% in December, 3.4% in November and October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February, 4.2% in January), while the employment rate has increased.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly stated that the Australian economy and the central bank’s plans are influenced by key indicators like the level of household debt and spending, wage growth, and the state of the labor market, in addition to the international trade situation. If the indicator readings are lower than expected, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term, while higher data will strengthen the currency.
06:00 – GBP: Average Weekly Earnings Over the Last Three Months. Unemployment Rate
The UK Office for National Statistics publishes a report on average weekly earnings covering the period for the last three months, including and excluding bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of employee average earnings changes in the UK. An increase in wages is positive for the British pound, whereas a low indicator value is unfavorable. Forecast: The June report suggests that average earnings, including bonuses, rose again over the last three months (February–April) after gaining +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +4.2%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.0%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +5.0%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.3%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.5%, +5.7%, +5.9%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.6%, +5.8%, +6.5%, +7.2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8.5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.0%, +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods). Average earnings excluding bonuses likewise increased after gaining +3.4%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.2%, +4.5%, +4.6%, +4.6%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +5.2%, +5.6%, +5.9%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.8%, +4.9%, +5.1%, +5.4%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.1%, +6.2%, +6.6%, +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, +6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6.5%, +6.1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods). These figures show continued growth in employee earnings levels, which is favorable for the pound. If the figures turn out to be better than the forecast and/or previous values, the currency will likely strengthen. If the data falls short of expectations, the pound will likely weaken.
The UK unemployment data will be released at the same time. Unemployment is expected to stand at 5.0% over the last three months (February–April), after 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.2%, 5.2%, 5.1%, 5.1%, 5.0%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 4.6%, 4.5%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.3%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.9% in previous periods).
Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 8.0% in September 2012. The unemployment decline is a positive factor for the pound, while its growth negatively impacts the currency.
If the UK labor market data appears to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.
Regardless, when the UK labor market data is released, the pound and the London Stock Exchange are expected to experience increased volatility.
07:30 – CHF: Swiss National Bank’s Interest Rate Decision. SNB Monetary Policy Statement
Recently, the Swiss franc has once again gained popularity as a safe-haven asset. However, the possibility of intervention is currently preventing the currency from experiencing significant growth. SNB executives emphasize that intervening in the foreign exchange market is crucial for maintaining the low investment appeal of the franc and alleviating upward pressure on the currency.
The deposit rate is widely anticipated to remain at 0.0% at the June 2026 meeting, following a series of reductions at each of the last eight meetings since March 2024.
Besides, traders will scrutinize the SNB statement for signals regarding the further monetary policy plans. The hawkish tone of the statement will favor the Swiss franc. Conversely, the soft tone and inclination to resume the loose monetary policy will negatively affect the currency. If the SNB board makes unexpected statements, volatility in the currency market and the Swiss franc is expected to increase.
08:00 – CHF: Swiss National Bank Press Conference
The SNB press conference will commence after the release of the interest rate decision. During the press conference and the speech of SNB chairman Martin Schlegel, who succeeded Thomas Jordan at the end of September 2024, volatility in the Swiss franc will surge. Traders expect signals regarding further plans for the SNB’s monetary policy. The hawkish tone of Martin Schlegel’s speech will bolster the Swiss franc, while a softer tone and the SNB’s inclination towards a soft monetary policy will negatively affect the franc. Volatility in the currency market and in the value of the Swiss franc is expected to rise.
11:00 – GBP: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision. Bank of England Meeting Minutes.
As a result of the August 2023 meeting, the interest rate was increased to 5.25%. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has decided to raise borrowing costs amid a robust labor market to curb price growth. However, further tightening of monetary policy may be required to bring inflation to the 2.0% target.
Since the September 2023 meeting, the Bank of England has maintained a wait-and-see stance. Finally, on August 1, 2024, the central bank cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.00%, marking the first cut since August 2023. The current interest rate is 3.75%.
At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of England may either cut interest rates again, due to the challenging situation in the country’s labor market, or pause, or raise rates again, amid persistently high inflation.
More and more analysts believe that the BoE will raise interest rates. The market’s reaction to such a move will be completely unpredictable.
At the same time, the BoE will publish the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes, including a breakdown of the votes for and against interest rate changes. The main UK risks after Brexit are related to expectations of a slowdown in the country’s economic growth, as well as a large deficit in the UK balance of payments account.
Uncertainty about the Bank of England’s next step persists. Meanwhile, the British Pound and FTSE100 futures offer a lot of trading opportunities during the publication of the Bank’s rate decision.
Friday, June 19
Due to the Juneteenth holiday in the US, trading activity and market liquidity are expected to be lower than usual, particularly during the American trading session.
06:00 – GBP: UK Retail Sales
The retail sales economic indicator is a key metric that tracks the level of consumer demand and significantly impacts market performance and the national currency. Additionally, it serves as an indirect indicator of inflation, making it a key concern for a country’s central bank and market participants.
The retail sales report is released by the UK Office for National Statistics. The Retail Sales change is considered to indicate the consumer spending level. High indicator values are positive for the British pound, while low readings are negative.
Previous values YoY: 0%, +1.4%, +1.8%, +4.8%, +1.9% in January 2026, +1.4% in December 2025, +1.9%, +2.1%, +0.9%, +2.0%, +1.1%, -0.9%, +3.3%, +2.0%, +0.6%, -1.3%, +2.8% in January 2025.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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