Gold hangs near YTD low, below $4,000 as bears await Fed’s Warsh

Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone for the third straight day and trades below the $4,000 psychological mark through the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the precious metal remains well within striking distance of its lowest level since November 2025, set on Tuesday. Moreover, a bullish US Dollar (USD), bolstered by uncertainty over US-Iran talks and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets, suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion remains to the downside.

US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Qatar on Tuesday for talks about the implementation of an initial deal to end the war in Iran. Tehran, however, has denied any planned meeting with US envoys, clouding the prospects for a lasting peace agreement between the two countries and keeping the geopolitical risk premium in play. Furthermore, tensions over the critical Strait of Hormuz revive fears of inflation, which, along with a still resilient US labor market, endorse hawkish Fed expectations and act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback.

The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed on Tuesday that job openings edged up to 7.594 million, or a two-year high in May. Adding to this, the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June from 90.6 in May. Furthermore, Cleveland Fed President ​Beth Hammack said that it remains possible that she’ll advocate for higher interest rates if inflation pressures don’t moderate. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning over an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike move by the end of this year.

The outlook favors the USD bulls, which, in turn, validates the near-term negative outlook for the Gold price. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum in Sintra. Apart from this, Wednesday’s US economic docket – featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Manufacturing PMI – should provide some impetus to the Greenback and the XAU/USD pair later during the North American session.

The market focus will then shift to the release of the US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for Gold remains to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery is more likely to be sold into and remain capped.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Gold remains vulnerable near YTD low amid bearish technical setup

From a technical perspective, the precious metal holds well below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and keeps a bearish near-term tone. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers just below the signal line in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips toward the 40 line. Momentum indicators together hint that upside attempts are likely to remain limited for now.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 100-period SMA at $4,161.80, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias. On the downside, the $3,943-$3,942 area, or the year-to-date low, could act as an initial pivot. A clear drop under this area would expose further weakness in the broader consolidation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)