This was a holiday-shortened week that leaned dovish by the finish. Traders spent the first couple of days shoving the dollar around without much conviction, waiting on the catalysts that would set the tone. They got two. Midweek, Fed Chair Warsh told the Sintra forum that inflation risks had come down and refused to commit to a rate path, which softened the hawkish read markets had carried out of June and nudged tightening bets lower.
Then Thursday’s jobs report landed a day early, ahead of the Independence Day break, and badly undershot, knocking those bets down further and sinking the greenback. Between them, the two shifts rippled through everything. Gold ripped toward $4,200, the S&P 500 wrapped up one of its strongest quarters in about six years, and Bitcoin clawed back from a Strategy-driven scare to finish green. Oil kept leaking its war premium as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire held.
