Key Takeaways
- Polymarket’s CLARITY Act contract rebounded to 35% on July 17 from a record-low 24% on July 13.
- The market sat near 74% in May before Democratic objections to Trump ethics rules sank the odds.
- Senate Republicans planned to release the final CLARITY Act text after a July 17 Trump meeting.
Expectations Are Rising
The rebound suggests the odds of the Clarity Act passing into law this year have jumped to 35% (down 7% from 42% just hours earlier) with the move coming hours before Senate Republicans planned to release the bill’s long-awaited final text following a White House meeting with President Donald Trump.
Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where traders buy and sell shares in the outcome of real-world events, with prices reflecting the crowd’s implied probability. Its “Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?” market has become one of the most-watched gauges of the bill’s fortunes in Washington.
In fact, the contract has traveled a brutal path as odds stood near 74% in May, when the Senate Banking Committee advanced the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) in a bipartisan 15-9 vote. They then dropped to 48% in June as negotiations dragged, slid further when lead negotiator Patrick Witt departed and Sen. Elizabeth Warren pushed for tougher ethics rules, and briefly recovered above 50% around an early-July text push.
The bottom fell out on July 13, when the odds sank to about 24% (the market’s lowest reading ever) even as Trump pressed senators to approve the bill with a warning that China could dominate crypto and artificial intelligence if Washington stalls.
Friday’s bounce back to 35% tracks the news flow. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told reporters the updated text would be released right after the Trump meeting, quipping: “You guys have a lot of reading to do.” Floor action is targeted for the week of July 20.
The Votes Still Are Not There
The rebound factors in momentum but still does not signal a done deal because the bill needs 60 votes in the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats (meaning at least seven Democrats must cross over). Democratic negotiators, however, say the draft heading to the floor is not one they agreed to, with Sen. Ruben Gallego calling its ethics provisions “very weak.” The dispute centers on language addressing President Trump’s business interests in the crypto industry.
Time is the other constraint, as the bill already missed the July 4 signing target the president had set, and the Senate leaves for its August recess on Aug. 8, a window many in the industry view as the last realistic chance for passage this year.
Looking ahead, a 35% – 42% probability still leans “no,” but it is no longer a collapse. In other words, traders are effectively betting that the text release restarts a stalled process, while discounting the odds that seven Democrats sign on within three weeks. Every headline between now and the recess (the text itself, a cloture vote, any Democratic defections) will likely move the number in a big way.
