Review
NOTE: U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday, September 7, in observance of the Labor Day holiday.
Reportedly, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent supported the yen to prevent Japanese investors exiting the Treasury market. Meanwhile, the central bank of the Netherlands could be seen exiting the New York Federal Reserve with as much gold as it could carry. The Dutch moving roughly 86 metric tonnes of gold from the U.S. and Canada to the UK and the Netherlands is highly unusual. The gold has not (net) been sold, and UK-held gold is still dollar-denominated. Nonetheless, trust is an important but vulnerable characteristic of a reserve currency.
— Paul Donovan, “Fun with foreign exchange,” UBS Daily Update, September 3, 2026.
The world’s financial system is a complex web of intertwined strings that don’t move in isolation. Pulling on one string stretches another, potentially breaking it if pulled hard enough. The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency, but that status comes with certain responsibilities. When the U.S. pulls on too many strings (as it does now), it can have unintended, longer-term consequences.
Large amounts of gold leaving the U.S. do not occur often; in fact, there have been only a handful of such occurrences since the end of WWII and the establishment of Bretton Woods. However, we have now seen two countries move large quantities of gold out of the U.S. in the last 13 months. The first was France, which moved its remaining 129 tonnes to Europe between July 2025 and January 2026. Interestingly, France now holds no gold at the NY Fed for the first time in almost a century. The second is the 86 tonnes that was just moved out by the Dutch over the last month. Moving that much gold is a deliberate policy choice and could signal a shift in trust toward U.S. custodianship. The real tell will be whether this trend continues in the months to come.
Turning to the markets, the jobs report released Friday morning was a blowout. The headline number showed a gain of 162,000, versus expectations of 56,000. This was the strongest monthly print since March and well above the 12-month average of +31,000. Things got even better with the July revisions swinging from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000. One would have thought that the equity markets would have celebrated such growth, but instead, U.S. markets settled the week mostly unchanged to slightly lower. Might the increase in probabilities of a Fed rate hike following the release of the jobs number have something to do with it? It was much the same for European and Asian markets, with most finishing the week unchanged to moderately lower.
Crude Oil was the big winner in commodity markets, showing an impressive 10.5% gain from Monday’s low, following a gap-up on the open to Thursday’s high in the October futures contract. This likely signals that a new primary cycle is underway from the July 2 low, and the chart is starting to look bullish. The only other commodity market to post a bigger weekly gain (from low to high) than Crude Oil was Orange Juice, which tacked on almost 16% from early-week lows. Perhaps the market is realizing that with school back in session, kids like a shot of OJ with their morning Cheerios! Personally, I take mine with pulp included (hey, don’t knock it before you try it). In the agricultural space, the torrid rally in the grain markets continued, with Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat hitting multi-year highs. These markets are getting extended, so a much-needed rest could be in the offing. More on the grains in the longer-term outlook section below.
Precious metals started the week on the defensive, falling sharply into early Wednesday before mounting an impressive rally. This was in line with expectations, as we were looking for a half-primary cycle low in Gold to form this week. Wednesday’s low could have been it, and if it holds, Gold now needs to rally above 4755 to keep the bullish trend intact. Doing so will also be strong confirmation that Gold’s intermediate-term cycles have bottomed.
In crypto-land, Bitcoin shot up to another new weekly high but remains stubbornly below its May 6 crest. The market needs to exceed this important technical resistance to fully unleash the bulls. Interestingly, Ethereum failed to make a new weekly high this week, setting up a small case of bearish intermarket divergence. This may resolve next week, but if not, it could signal a larger pullback is starting.
In currencies, the hot action continues to be in the yen (one of those intertwined strings mentioned earlier). With interventions, carry trade risks, and a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision looming in a few weeks, this currency will continue to be subject to potentially large price swings. I think the Dollar/Yen chart is key to understanding a big part of the global financial picture moving forward. Interestingly, the Dollar/Yen fell right to support (around 155.20) this week and held at the early August intervention lows. A break below this level would certainly be an interesting development with repercussions for many markets.
Short-term geocosmics
Uranus turns retrograde next week and highlights the TUMDI (Trump Uranus Market Disruption Indicator) period that is now in effect through about September 15. So far, this indicator has provided renewed tariff escalation with Canada, an “economic D-Day” for Iran (again, the strings), “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!!” (AI video posted by Trump), and renewed attacks by Iran on U.S. bases. While equity markets have taken these disruptions in stride, energy markets have violently priced in additional risk. Traders would be wise to keep their heads on a swivel these next two weeks, as you just never know which market Trump might come after next!
As if TUMDI wasn’t enough, there will be pivotal actions and decisions over the next two weeks that could swing markets violently higher or lower. Starting on September 9, the U.S. Treasury will increase the size of liquidity-support buybacks of longer-dated bonds. On September 15, the Senate votes on whether to move key crypto legislation forward. The Fed rate decision is due on September 16, while the Bank of Japan meets September 17–18. I have no idea how markets will react to these events, but with Uranus changing direction on September 10 and money planet Venus squaring the debt planet of Pluto on September 15, I can tell you it won’t be boring!
Longer-term thoughts
In a weekly column I wrote in December of last year, I discussed my findings that throughout history Saturn–Neptune conjunctions and oppositions have often correlated with sharply higher grain prices throughout history. That column went on to state, “The next Saturn–Neptune conjunction takes place in February 2026. While it only transpires as a single pass this time around, it should be noted that the two planets will come within a degree of exactness in June–August 2025. What’s also interesting about this coming conjunction is that it takes place with both planets positioned at 1° of fiery Aries. Does this fact add to the possibility of another drought developing over a major grain hub of the world? Or does this mean the supply of Wheat (food) could be impacted in some other way, perhaps by an escalation of war, or a perceived threat to food security?”
Fast forward to today, and this now looks to have been a very astute line of reasoning. War did indeed escalate with the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. One major consequence for crop production from this confrontation is the reduced ability to produce and export nitrogen-based fertilizers originating from this part of the world. However, it is the escalation of the Russia–Ukraine conflict that is currently providing a more sustained bid for Corn and Wheat. The two sides have now started targeting grain export infrastructure and even ships carrying Corn and Wheatcc. As for weather, Europe has experienced an exceptional drought this growing season that could lead to the smallest Corn harvest in nearly two decades for that continent! This may not be the end of the drought story either. With a super El Niño in full effect, Brazil’s soon-to-be-planted Soybean crop is up next and looks like it could be right in the crosshairs.
From last year’s lows, Wheat is up 61%, Corn is up 49%, and Soybeans are up 38%. While these are impressive gains, further upside in this emerging bull market looks highly probable. This is especially the case as we are only seven months removed from February’s Saturn–Neptune conjunction, and Ceres will be transiting the sign of Cancer until May 2027. While the trend is undoubtedly higher in the grain markets, corrections will happen. We attempt to navigate these pullbacks and identify new opportunities in Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat in the MMA Monthly Grain report. If you’re interested in gaining some exposure to the ag space, check it out.
