The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Main scenario: Once the correction has been completed, consider short positions below the level of 1.4320 with a target of 1.3548–1.3392. A sell signal: the local correction ends and the price holds below 1.4320. Stop Loss: above 1.4365, Take Profit: 1.3548–1.3392.
- Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.4320 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.4527–1.4792. A buy signal: the level of 1.4320 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 1.4275, Take Profit: 1.4527–1.4792.
Main Scenario
Consider short positions below 1.4320 with a target of 1.3548–1.3392 once the correction is completed.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation above 1.4320 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.4527–1.4792.
Analysis
An ascending fifth wave of larger degree 5 is likely unfolding on the weekly chart. Within it, wave (1) of 5 has formed and a bearish correction continues developing as the second wave (2) of 5. On the daily time frame, wave B of (2) is apparently nearing completion, with wave c of B also nearing completion as its part. On the H4 time frame, the fifth wave of smaller degree (v) of c is presumably developing, within which wave v of (v) is nearing completion. If the presumption is correct, USD/CAD will resume declining to 1.3548–1.3392 once wave B of (2) is completed. The level of 1.4320 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.4527–1.4792.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USDCAD in real time mode
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