I would be interested to see the math on Bessent’s calculation on how many barrels are missing. The outlines of it are usually that 20 mbpd goes through the Strait of Hormuz daily under normal conditions. Now that’s down to virtually zero, however Saudi Arabia fired up an east-west pipeline to the Red Sea and other mitigation efforts via land have preserved 7-8 mbpd of exports. Bessent is adding another 2-5 mpbd to that.
Other comments from Bessent:
- We have absolute control of the strait
- US is firing only when fired upon
- Now would be a good time for potential partners to step up on Iran
- To the US consumer: Help is on the way
- I think the oil market will be very well supplied
- Expecting oil prices to come down quickly when conflict ends
- Let’s see China step up diplomacy on Iran
Bessent and others are losing credibility on Iran. They promised a 4-6 week conflict and oil prices falling quickly after that but now we’re in week 10 and there’s no sign of an end. Last week, Bessent said Iran’s oil industry would implode in three days because oil would be shut in but they’re still loading tankers on Kharg Island.
At the very start of the war, Trump’s former national security advisor John Bolton talked about Trump, and I believe he’s being proven correct. He said that Trump doesn’t think strategically, that he improvises.
Bolton said he was “very worried” that the administration didn’t do
adequate consultation with the Iranian opposition before pulling the
trigger and that’s proven to be true as well, as there’s been no uprising and whatever Trump tried with supply Kurds with weapons failed.
Mostly though, it’s the improvising and erratic behaviour that doesn’t inspire confidence.
“He can swing wildly on a given issue in the course of a day. He could swing back,” Bolton said about Trump.
The military execution may be good but the day-after plan is unclear, he said.
