Key Takeaways
- Elon Musk said SpaceX could exceed the rest of Earth’s total value if the company accomplishes its long-term goals.
- The claim followed criticism of a reported Anthropic, xAI, and SpaceX deal tied to AI compute access.
- SpaceX’s IPO, Nasdaq-100 inclusion, and stock pullback now frame the market test around Musk’s claim.
Why Did Musk Defend SpaceX’s Scale Against AI Deal Criticism?
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk responded after X user Thomas D. questioned whether a reported $7.5 billion to $40 billion Anthropic and SpaceXAI deal could become “the biggest unforced error of the AI era.” The post argued Anthropic may have strengthened a direct competitor while xAI’s Grok 4.5 appeared close to top intelligence at lower cost.
The criticism centered on user migration, compute economics, and Anthropic’s growth. Thomas D. suggested users could shift most token exchange to SpaceXAI while using Claude only for top tasks. That scenario, he argued, could transfer Anthropic’s growth to SpaceXAI and complicate Anthropic’s IPO and ability to fund frontier AI development.
Musk answered with a broader valuation claim:
“You don’t seem to understand that SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals.”
The reply framed SpaceX’s value around its largest ambitions, including a future space economy beyond ordinary Earth-based company comparisons.
Anthropic signed a major compute leasing agreement with SpaceX in May 2026 for access to Colossus 1, the Memphis AI supercluster built by xAI to train Grok models. The deal gave Anthropic full access to more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs and over 300 MW of power, at roughly $1.25 billion per month. SpaceX filings described a multi-year ramp through May 2029, implying a possible $30 billion to $40 billion value, though Musk later said the base lease runs 180 days with a 90-day mutual termination notice afterward.
How Did SpaceX’s IPO Put That Claim to the Test?
SpaceX completed its initial public offering on June 12, 2026, pricing shares at $135. The company raised $86 billion, became the largest IPO in history, and reached roughly $2.1 trillion in market value on its first Nasdaq trading day. Musk became the world’s first trillionaire following the historic IPO. However, according to Forbes, the milestone was short-lived, and he is no longer a trillionaire today.
The SpaceX stock (Nasdaq: SPCX) quickly became a symbol of investor belief in the company’s scale. Shares debuted at $150 and climbed 50% to an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16. The surge briefly pushed SpaceX’s valuation past Amazon and near $3 trillion before concerns grew over a bond offering, heavy Terafab data center spending, and upcoming insider lockup expirations.
The pullback sharpened the debate. SpaceX shares fell 26% from the high, touched $145.20, then recovered slightly to hover around $152. The company also entered the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, triggering about $4.3 billion in passive inflows as index funds bought the stock.
What Evidence Could Support Musk’s SpaceX Valuation Argument?
SpaceX has tied its market story to operating scale. The company completed its 80th Falcon 9 mission of the year to deploy more Starlink satellites. It also secured recurring revenue from Anthropic, which is paying $1.25 billion monthly for space-based AI compute access.
The IPO reshaped SpaceX’s competitive field. Smaller space stocks such as Virgin Galactic and AST SpaceMobile sold off as capital shifted toward SPCX. Blue Origin also used the space-sector boom to raise $10 billion at a $130 billion valuation, showing how SpaceX’s public listing changed investor attention across the industry.
Whether SpaceX reaches the scale Musk described will depend on sustained revenue growth, successful infrastructure expansion, and its ability to execute its long-term objectives. The stock’s retreat shows the market still tests that vision against capital needs and investor supply.
