- Spain September preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.6% y/y expected
- Prior +4.3%
- Spain September preliminary HICP +5.0% vs +4.9% y/y expected
- Prior +4.6%
The breakdown
The numbers are running hotter than expected with headline annual inflation climbing to 4.9%, its highest since February 2023.
Meanwhile, core annual inflation is also seen accelerating further from 2.9% to 3.1% in September. That suggests the rise in price pressures is starting to become broader, and not just isolated within energy prices. The jump here marks the highest level for core annual inflation since March 2024.
This may just be one reading but if the trend in Spain feeds through to the region more broadly, it could very well push expectations for a quicker move by the ECB on their next policy step.
As things stand, markets are pricing in roughly 50% odds of a 25 bps rate hike for October next. The upcoming inflation data from the region this week might very well have some influence in affecting how that changes next.
EUR/USD remains lightly changed on the day, sitting at 1.1360 currently.
What does the data measure?
Spain’s CPI tracks changes in consumer prices, while HICP uses a harmonised methodology that makes Spain’s inflation rate comparable with other euro area countries.
Why do markets care?
Spain is one of the first major euro area economies to report September inflation, making the release an early signal for where the broader Eurozone CPI numbers could be heading.
How does this fit the current backdrop?
Headline inflation has risen quickly, climbing from 3.6% in July to 4.3% in August, with another increase expected in September. However, core inflation eased to 2.9% in August, suggesting much of the latest acceleration has so far been concentrated in energy rather than broad-based underlying inflation.
Energy prices remain the main complication for the euro area inflation outlook. The ECB is trying to distinguish between a temporary energy shock and signs that those price increases are feeding more persistently into wages, services and underlying inflation.
