EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we have Fed’s Waller speaking on the economic outlook and the ECB meeting minutes. The “economic outlook” speeches generally contain policy signals or guidance. Fed’s Waller has been a great “leading indicator” both for the direction of Fed policy and the central bank’s reaction function. The last time he spoke, he dialed down his hawkish language and adopted a more neutral bias, triggering strong moves in the markets.
The ECB minutes are not a market-moving report because they are released four weeks after the ECB decision, making them old news by the time they are released. The reason is the same as for the FOMC meeting minutes, that is a lot can change in the markets between the decision and the release of the minutes, and markets are forward-looking.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 200K vs 197K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1700K vs 1701K prior. Jobless Claims are one of the most important economic releases on the calendar as they basically show the pulse of the labour market.
They haven’t been a market-moving release lately, though, both because the Fed has been focusing solely on inflation and because they’ve been showing continued strength in the labour market. To get a significant reaction, we would need the data to change the current expectations of stable labour market. So, we would need a notable deterioration in the data.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 08:05 GMT/04:05 ET – SNB’s Martin (neutral – voter)
- 08:30 GMT/04:30 ET – Fed’s Waller (neutral – voter)
- 09:15 GMT/05:15 ET – BoE’s Greene (hawkish – voter)
- 10:00 GMT/06:00 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
- 10:30 GMT/06:30 ET – BoE’s Pill (hawkish – voter)
- 12:15 GMT/08:15 ET – BoE Governor Bailey (neutral – voter)
- 13:00 GMT/09:00 ET – BoE’s Lombardelli (neutral – voter)
- 17:40 GMT/13:40 ET – Fed’s Musalem (hawkish – non voter)
