Next week’s focus will be on the August U.S. employment report, where we expect nonfarm payroll growth to rebound to 80K, the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month over month, leaving wage growth in the low-3% range year over year. While job growth remains subdued, labor market conditions continue to look broadly balanced, with low layoffs and steady wage growth consistent with a gradual cooling, rather than a sharp deterioration.
Beyond the U.S., a busy international calendar will provide fresh insight into the global growth and inflation outlook. We expect Australia’s economy to remain resilient despite slower growth in Q2, while India should continue to rank among the fastest-growing major economies even as growth moderates from its strong Q1 pace. In Brazil, growth is expected to show a loss of momentum following a robust start to the year. Elsewhere, Eurozone inflation is likely to accelerate, strengthening the case for a September ECB rate hike, while Canada’s employment report and Bank of Canada meeting will offer a timely assessment of how resilient the economy remains amid escalating U.S. trade tensions.
