The week ahead (October 5–11, 2026) is expected to be relatively light on major economic events. Nevertheless, market participants will closely monitor key macroeconomic data from the US, the Eurozone, China, and Canada. The main event will be the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East and movements in oil prices are likely to remain important drivers of market sentiment.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: US PMI Services
- Tuesday: Eurozone Retail Sales
- Wednesday: September Fed Meeting Minutes
- Thursday: None scheduled
- Friday: China CPI, Canada’s labor market data for September, and the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index
- Key event: September Fed Meeting Minutes
Monday, October 5
14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.
Previous readings: 55.4 in August, 54.1 in July, 54.0 in June, 54.5 in May, 53.6 in April, 54.0 in March, 56.1 in February, 53.8 in January 2026 and December 2025, 52.4 in November, 52.0 in October, 50.3 in September, 51.9 in August, 50.5 in July, 50.8 in June, 50.2 in May, 51.6 in April, 50.8 in March, 53.2 in February, 52.8 in January 2025.
The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.
Tuesday, October 6
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures: -0.6% (+0.6% YoY), +0.2% (+4.4% YoY), +0.4% (+1.9% YoY), -0.3% (+0.7% YoY), +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), -0.3% (+0.9% YoY), +0.8% (+2.1% YoY), -0.5% (+1.3% YoY), 0% (+2.2% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+2.1% YoY) in December 2025.
Wednesday, October 7
18:00 – USD: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
The FOMC minutes release is extremely important for determining the course of the Fed’s current policy and the prospects for US interest rate hikes. Volatility in financial markets usually increases during the minutes’ publication, as they often reveal changes or provide clarifications from the latest FOMC meeting.
At its first meeting of 2026, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Following the September meeting, the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first increase in three years. Fed Chair Warsh said inflation remained too high, while the dot plot showed that 12 of 18 FOMC members expect another rate hike before year-end. Markets are pricing in a 65%–70% probability of a hike at the October meeting and around 90% in December.
Market participants expect the published minutes to provide some clarity on this issue. The dovish tone of the minutes will positively impact stock indices and negatively affect the US dollar. The hawkish Fed’s rhetoric on monetary policy may boost the greenback.
Thursday, October 8
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled for release.
Friday, October 9
01:30 – CNY: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter monetary policy. Higher consumer inflation may boost the yuan, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
China’s economy is the second largest in the world, after the US economy. China is also the largest buyer of commodities and a supplier of a wide range of finished goods in the global commodity market. Therefore, the release of key macroeconomic data from China significantly impacts global financial markets, primarily the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, commodity-linked currencies, and Chinese and Asian stock indices.
In August 2026, the consumer inflation index value stood at +0.4% (+0.8% YoY) after -0.1% (+0.5% YoY) in July, -0.3% (+1.0% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+1.2%) in April, -0.7% (+1.0% YoY) in March, +1.0% (+1.3% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+0.8% YoY) in December 2025, -0.1% (+0.7%) in November, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in October, +0.1% (-0.3% YoY) in September, 0% (-0.4% YoY) in August, +0.4% (0% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in June, -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) in May, +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025.
An increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as China is the largest trading and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand.
12:30 – CAD: Canada’s Unemployment Rate
Statistics Canada will release the country’s September labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In August 2026, unemployment stood at 6.4% against 6.4% in July, 6.5% in June, 6.6% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.7% in March and February, 6.5% in January 2026, 6.8% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.9% in October, 7.1% September and August, 6.9% in July and June, 7.0% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
14:00 – USD: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Release)
This indicator reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth, while a low one points to stagnation. Previous indicator values: 48.1, 51.7, 55.2, 49.5, 44.8, 49.8, 53.3, 56.6, 56.4 in January 2026, 52.9 in December 2025, 51.0 in November, 53.6 in October, 55.1 in September, 58.2 in August, 61.7 in July, 60.7 in June, 52.2 in May and April, 57.0 in March, 64.7 in February, 71.1 in January 2025. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the US dollar, while a decrease will weaken the currency. The data shows that the recovery of this indicator is uneven, which is unfavorable for the greenback. A decline below previous values will likely negatively impact the US dollar in the near term.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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